Economists believe consumer spending will entice businesses to start hiring according to a June 2nd article in Bloomberg-Businessweek titled 'Global Economics: The U.S. Economy's 'You First' Problem'.
The question is how much consumer spending? Consumer spending has risen consistently since the first quarter of 2009 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. According to the Economist, before adjusting for inflation it grew at a 6.7 percent annualized rate.
Total Consumer Spending 2009-Q1 2011 (In Billions of Dollars) | |||||||||
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis | |||||||||
2009 I | 2009 II | 2009 III | 2009 IV | 2010 I | 2010 II | 2010 III | 2010 IV | 2011 I |
9913 | 9920.1 | 10040.7 | 10131.5 | 10230.8 | 10285.4 | 10366.3 | 10513.6 | 10668.2 |
So what about corporate hiring, do those numbers match the 2.2 percent inflation adjusted consumer spending rate? According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics the growth in 'Non-farm payroll employment' averages 156.6 thousand per month for the first five months of 2011. Total non-farm payrolls for the same five months averaged 130,736 per the BLS; this is 1.437 percent growth annualized or 1.19 basis points monthly.
Payroll employment' 2009-2010 | ||||||||||||
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics | ||||||||||||
Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
2009 | -820 | -726 | -796 | -660 | -386 | -502 | -300 | -231 | -236 | -221 | -55 | -130 |
2010 | -39 | -35 | 192 | 277 | 458 | -192 | -49 | -59 | -29 | 171 | 93 | 152 |
2011 | 68 | 235 | 194 | 232(P) | 54(P) |
Based on the above data, it would seem consumer spending and corporate hiring are not completely correlated. Non-farm payrolls which account for 80 percent of total workforce per Investopedia, lag consumer spending growth by more than three quarters or .75 percent.
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