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Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Is Consumer Spending Really Matched by Employer Hiring?

Economists believe consumer spending will entice businesses to start hiring according to a June 2nd article in Bloomberg-Businessweek titled 'Global Economics: The U.S. Economy's 'You First' Problem'. 

The question is how much consumer spending? Consumer spending has risen consistently since the first quarter of 2009 according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. According to the Economist, before adjusting for inflation it grew at a 6.7 percent annualized rate.

Total Consumer Spending 2009-Q1 2011 (In Billions of Dollars)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis











   2009
I
   2009
II
   2009
III
   2009
IV
   2010
I
   2010
II
   2010
III
   2010
IV
   2011
I
9913 9920.1 10040.7 10131.5 10230.8 10285.4 10366.3 10513.6 10668.2


So what about corporate hiring, do those numbers match the 2.2 percent inflation adjusted consumer spending rate?  According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics the growth in 'Non-farm payroll employment' averages 156.6 thousand per month for the first five months of 2011. Total non-farm payrolls for the same five months averaged 130,736 per the BLS; this is 1.437 percent growth annualized or 1.19 basis points monthly. 


Payroll employment' 2009-2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics













Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009 -820 -726 -796 -660 -386 -502 -300 -231 -236 -221 -55 -130
2010 -39 -35 192 277 458 -192 -49 -59 -29 171 93 152
2011 68 235 194 232(P) 54(P)



Based on the above data, it would seem consumer spending and corporate hiring are not completely correlated. Non-farm payrolls which account for 80 percent  of total workforce per Investopedia, lag consumer spending growth by more than three quarters or .75 percent.

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