Inflation in the U.S.

Inflation has existed in the United States for every decade since the 1910's except the 1930's. During the 1970's after the U.S. completely removed the gold standard from backing currency, inflation rose rapidly. What this means is the price and cost of products and services generally rises in an ongoing manner causing downward pressure on the purchasing power of the dollar over time. When someone says they were able to buy something for a fraction of the cost 40 years ago they are indirectly indicating inflationary forces exist over time.

Inflation can be good and bad in the sense the presence of inflation may be an indicator of a prosperous economy seeking to gain greater profits within various sectors, or in the case of a less favorable inflation, demand for products exceed supply. Since inflation is a variable within the nexus of economic relationships, it is perhaps best not to perceive it as the only indicator of an economy's success or failure, but instead as a metric that points to economic behavior in relation to other economic circumstances, the total of which may be beneficial or not. This article will discuss the meaning of inflation in terms of how it is measured, historical inflation trends within the United States, causes and remedies of inflation.

Inflation metrics

Inflation metrics measure inflation within specific areas of the economy and consequently can be quite deceptive if not assessed in terms of other inflation metrics and the economy at large. For example the consumer price index (CPI) is measured in two ways, one way includes all items in the cost of living while the excludes energy and food costs which comprise a great deal of consumer spending. The differences between the two are quite significant especially in light of the surge in energy prices experienced during periods where energy costs have risen such as the 1970's and 2000's. A few of the other economic inflation indexes are provided below.

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Implicit Price Deflator (IPD): Measures consumer product costs

• Producer Price Index (PPI): Measures industrial production costs

• Employment Cost Indicator (ECI): A metric that follows the cost of labor

• Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI): Another measure of consumer costs

• International Price Program (IPP): Used to assess prices of international goods

U.S. inflation statistics and facts

• U.S. consumer price inflation from 1913-2006 has averaged 3.43% per year.(5)

• The U.S. Producer Price Index experienced very large rises between 1950-2000.(7)

• 1975-1999, professional and technical salaries increased an average of 5.4%(6) 

• Service occupations salaries rose an average of 5%/year between 1975-1999. (6)

• Average PCEPI i.e. Personal consumption Expenditures Price Index between1983-2000 was 3.8% for services and 1.1% for goods. (4)

Causes of inflation

Inflation is a fairly common phenomenon throughout the World and is generally not favored by consumers but is sometimes favorable to businesses that are able to take advantage of inflationary movements in revenue generation. In general however inflation spells increasing costs and lower purchasing power per dollar. Several factors contribute to the occurrence of inflation, specifically those listed below.

• Demand for goods and services exceeds supply pushing prices up

• Production costs rise causing prices of goods to also rise

• Excess profiteering caused by semi-exclusive i.e. oligopolistic corporate pricing power

• Passing on industry specific costs i.e. high demand, and higher production costs 

• Money supply rises increasing wealth thereby causing prices to rise

Remedies for inflation

Inflation above a certain percentage is considered hazardous to an economy because it can negatively impact economic growth and prosperity where as lower levels of inflation around the 2% range tend to be manageable and exist side by side with economic growth. Consequently, the United States Federal Reserve keeps a close watch on inflationary data and attempts to periodically adjust money supply so as to avoid inflation and assist economic growth. By tightening money supply with higher borrowing cost, inflation is slowed but so to can economic growth be slowed, and the reverse can be the case when borrowing costs are lowered.

On the consumer end, inflation protection  helps ameliorate the rising cost of goods and services and preserves the value of investment capital. Inflation can also be remedied and dealt with in various different ways at the economic level. Some methods treat the problem of the inflation with countermeasures, whereas other measures such as the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy attempt to cure and/or limit the negative effects of inflation from the front end. A few remedies and methods that are used in dealing with inflation are provided as follows.

• Inflation adjusted incomes

• Inflation protected investments

• Fiscal and Monetary policy

• Business regulation

• International trade agreements

• Foreign Banking Alliances

In summary, inflation is a common and well known economic reality that has existed at various levels throughout most of the last century. Inflation is measured using broad based economic metrics that focus on main areas of cost and price pressure such as consumer spending and industrial production. Inflation is also tempered and regulated by the U.S. Federal Reserve, legislative fiscal policies, international trade and banking agreements, and business regulation. 

Consumers can also protect themselves form inflation by investing in inflation protected securities and asking for inflation adjusted pay raises. Understanding the effects of inflation, its causes and ways to deal with it can assist businesses, economists and consumers in adjusting for and appropriately dealing with fiscal and monetary outcomes typically associated with it.

Sources:

1. http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/inflation/us-inflation/cpi.cfm
2. http://www.mrsc.org/focuspub/ipd.aspx
3. http://www.econ.umn.edu/~smith097/articles/A%207.%20.pdf
4. http://www.allbusiness.com/marketing/market-research/917714-1.html
5. http://www.inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/DecadeInflation.asp
6. http://www.bls.gov/dolfaq/bls_ques6.htm
7. http://twocents.blogs.com/weblog/long_wave/index.html
8. http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/article.asp?ARTICLEID=625&PAGEID=3&SUBID=112
9. http://www.bls.gov/ncs/ect/sp/ecbl0014.pdf

Do Permanent Open Market Operations Affect the Stock Market

In the spring of 2009, the New York Federal Reserve Bank, a component bank of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, announced it would initiate what was to be called Permanent Open Market Operations which has since been abbreviated to POMO by market commentators and investors.

The purpose of the Permanent Open Market Operations is to counterbalance inflows and outflows from the Federal Reserve Bank. By adjusting its balance sheet of assets and liabilities, the Federal Reserve Bank can also maintain the available amount of money supply which in turn affects market liquidity i.e. how much money is in the economy.

To illustrate how a Permanent Open Market Operation transaction would work, the relationship with 'primary dealers' is an important consideration. Primary dealers are the counterparties that agree to help facilitate the Federal Reserve Bank's objectives by either buying or selling financial securities from the bank.

Three of the POMO primary dealers are Barclays Capital Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co, and Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. For example, on September 9, 2010 the New York Federal Reserve Bank purchased $1.35 billion in financial securities from one or more of its primary dealers. Securities bought and sold in such transactions may include financial instruments such as mortgage backed securities, and government bonds.

When a Permanent Open Market Operation purchase is made from primary dealers, money enters the financial system via these banks. These banks may in turn reinvest this money in a way that influences the stock market. Since primary dealers may also be investment banks that serve as 'market makers', they potential to influence securities prices exists, and is contended to be present basis for stock market manipulation by some market observers.

To test whether or not the theory of market manipulation is true, one can contrast specific POMO transaction dates and observe market movements in indexes for those particular dates. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, nine Treasury Coupon Purchases were scheduled between August 17, 2010 and September 13, 2010. Between August 17 and September 9, the Dow Jones Industrial Average approximately traded within the 10,000-10,400 range moving in both directions despite eight of nine purchases from primary dealers.

Another way to see if POMO transactions influence stock market values is to compare cash flows. For example, according to NYSE Technologies Market Data, on September 8, 2010, over $25 Billion in dollar volume was traded on the NYSE. Yet, if this dollar volume does not itself take into account leverage, the number could plausibly represent $250 billion. Now assuming net leveraged dollar volume for all U.S. exchanges is closer to somewhere between 1-25 trillion dollars, the POMO transaction is minimal with only $1.35 billion of cash inflow to primary dealers. Even if the amount is equally leveraged to $10s of billions as reported by Tyler Durden on Zero Hedge, the amount of financial influence might only range from around half a percent to 10 percent at best.

There is room for speculation as to whether or not the Federal Reserve Bank of New York does have the capacity to move market indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average on a consistent basis. At the least, it would seem a large cooperation would be needed from the use of  additional funds made available through primary or other dealers. Moreover, the technical indicators of the market suggest a trading range for the DJIA for most of the period of the aforementioned POMO purchases despite the uni-directional flow of money into the primary dealers facilitation. Further review of the technical indicators however shows significance price movements before and following the initiation of the Federal Bond Purchasing Program indicating a possible correlation.

Sources:

1. http://bit.ly/4widM0 (NY Fed)
2. http://bit.ly/apRffP (Zero Hedge)
3. http://bit.ly/ctJP2m (NYSE Market Data)