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Thursday, May 31, 2012

Advantages and Disadvantages of Investing in Warrants

Image attribution: Freedigitalphotos.net; standard royalty free license

Warrants are a type of financial instrument similar to stock options. They offer the choice to purchase underlying financial securities such as stock at a specific price. If a company is destined to grow along with its price per share, a favorably priced warrant is a reasonable investment, but is not without its disadvantages.

Complete article link: http://www.helium.com/items/2332037-are-warrants-worth-investing-in

Guest post: Smart Money: Time Management Tricks

Guest post submitted by Doreen Martel; syndicated courtesy of Freelancing and More


We need to be honest with ourselves when we are self-employed and make sure that we are making the most of the hours that we invest in our business. There are some tasks that simply do not provide a good return on our investment of time and in some cases, they will never provide a good return for the time that we invest. In order to make the amount of money that you need to make, you need to make sure that you are managing your time well and investing the hours that you have well.

First set income goals


One of the first things that you need to determine is what your monthly income goal need to be. If you need to earn $1,000 a month and someone else needs to earn $2,000 then your time management techniques are going to be significantly different. If each of you is working 40 hours a week, your “hourly” earnings have to equal $6.25 (net) hourly for $1,000 a month but $12.50 for $2,000 a month. This can be problematic if you have to scrape around for assignments to meet that goal.

Set your hours

Clearly if you need to work 40 hours a week, you need to have some sort of schedule. There are so many things that can distract you during your typical work day including social media, email, Skype calls and so much more. You have to set your work hours and make a plan to stick with them in spite of any distractions that you may encounter. Do not forget to include time for sensible breaks, social media and other interruptions.

Pick your poison

There are countless ways to make money online, if you are careful, you can do fairly well. Make sure that you watch out for work at home scams and people who will take advantage of you. Find writing assignments that match with your own personal style of writing, participate at revenue sharing sites where you can write and earn ongoing revenue and find personal clients or use freelancing sites.  If you find the right “mix” of assignments between content farms, revenue sharing sites and micro tasks, you will be able to earn steady freelancing income.

Do not put all eggs in one basket

Too frequently, writers find themselves lulled into a false sense of complacency and think they can make all of their income from one or perhaps two websites. Do not do it!  If you do not take the time to expand your horizons, chances are that you are going to run into problems. Many writers suffered at the hands of Demand Studios when the First Look program went into effect, others took a beating with Suite 101 and still others lost out when Helium stopped paying up fronts. Try to make sure that you plan your time so that you have a steady stream of income coming in at all times. Your schedule might look like this:

       •  Monday – Private Clients
       •  Tuesday – Revenue Sharing Sites
       •  Wednesday – Blogging
       •  Thursday – Paid to write sites
       •  Friday – Micro sites

Using this type of a mix will allow you to keep a flow of income for both long and short-term needs. Using the micro-sites at the end of the week will allow you to play “catch up” if you have fallen a bit short on your other earnings goals or will allow you to make a few dollars to go out and play on the weekend.

Remember that only you can set your own time frames and schedules, you are going to have to find out what works best for your individual time and earnings needs.


About Doreen Martel

Well-rounded freelance writer who contributes to various blogs, paid to write sites and revenue sharing sites. Doreen is legally blind and has worked at home for more than 10 years. She uses the lessons learned from this experience to enhance her writing and share information with others.

Financial News 05/31/2012

Daily Finance: "Smishing," a prize variation of phishing, is a scam
Bloomberg: Up to 100 Californian municipalities could default on debt
DOL: 383,000 jobless claims were filed the week ending 05/26/2012
Forbes: Q1, 2012 GDP a lagging effect of QE2, further slowing predicted
BI: Convexity in duration formulas better predict future bond prices
CNBC: Analysts say oil price could fall as low as $78/brl in short-term
ADP: 133,000 private sector jobs were created in April
Zero Hedge: CDS sellers use ask price at day's end, not bid or close price
Fortune: A more regulated Internet would be bad for the global economy
Telegraph: Euro currency split could lower UK real estate up to 50%
Reuters: Euro survival requires greater fiscal integration per EU official
CNN Money: Brazilian jobs attract workers from around the world
AP: Indian economic growth slowed to 3 yr low of 5.3% in Q1, 2012

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Financial News 05/30/2012

NYT: Gullup poll indicates 50% less people prefer stocks than in 2002
Bloomberg: Start of option trading on FB showed 1.2:1 put/call ratio
BBC: Pink diamond sells for $17.4 million at Hong Kong auction
BI: Landlord recommends moderate amount of questions for rental interview
WKYC: Retailers offering exclusive deals via social media (video)
Reuters: Futures regulators propose "Corzine rule" to prevent securities fraud
S&P: Q1, 2012 home prices hit new "post-crisis low" per Case-Shiller Index
Smart Money: CSI measures unit price changes, NAR measures monthly data
MW: Dollar Index reaches new yearly high of 82.70, Euro down
IBD: Spanish retail sales drop 9.8% yr over yr, national credit downgraded
MW: ECB rejects Spanish recapitalization plan for its third largest bank
AP: Chinese stimulus package closer to 92 billion RMBs than 4 trillion

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Garage and Estate Sale Tips


Garage sales and estate sales are neighborhood events, usually held on weekends, in which a household or group of households make items they no longer want or need available for sale. Yard sales are a more literal description of garage sales as the items for sale usually make it out of the garage and into a yard. These sales are distinct from estate sales which are more like liquidation sales of a home's assets. Both can contain rewarding bargains.

When venturing to yard and estate sales it helps to be prepared. This is especially true if the events are intended for specific purposes such as the acquisition of useful items for home use or resale. For example, the chairs and screen in the picture below were obtained at the yard sale in the image above. This particular yard sale was an annual event held by a church so it had a great deal of items for sale including electronics, furniture, clothing and artisan items. The reason annual garage sales can be better is the volume of items for sale in one location.

$5 screen, $5 chairs

To make the most of yard sales and estate sales the following tips are helpful to keep in mind. This is because they assist with optimizing the yard and estate sale experiences. The first thing to do when preparing for estate and garage sales is to find out about them. Contacting churches and community centers is a good place to start, followed by newspaper classified ads, public message boards such as at grocery stores, laundromats, and online at websites such as Weekend Treasure.

• Be the first one there
• Be familiar with the neighborhood
• Know how much things are worth
• Eye the items before the sale begins
• Research garage & estate sales in advance
• Know what you need, not what you want

Not all yard and estate sales will necessarily yield profitable or helpful items. In this sense knowing when to buy and not to buy becomes a little like investing. Developing an eye for practicality such as discounted gifts, needed replacement items and profitable resale items are some things to look for, but only if the intended purpose is followed through on. For example, purchasing an item because it is more valuable than it's worth runs the risk of becoming a redundant acquisition if it is not sold again; that's why they're being sold at a discount in the first place. 

Financial News 05/29/2012

Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Index down to 69.4
BI: NYU finance prof. says banks provide "inept" valuations
Option Queen: U.S. market resilient, technical indicators point to oversold oil
NYT: State unemployment benefits facing cut offs after "lack of deterioration"
Bloomberg:U.S. 30-yr mortgage rates at record low 3.78%
MW: Dollar index reaches new 6-month high near 82.30
Daily Finance: Tupperware is more cost effective for freezing food
BW: Tourism the largest beneficiary of Greek currency devaluation
CNBC: Spain's 10-yr bonds neared 7% yields as bank share prices lower
Forbes: Poll indicates 60% of Germans favor Greek exit from Euro
AP: China and Yuan to begin direct trading in forex market

Sunday, May 27, 2012

Memorial Day Weekend: Financial News

Memorial day vehicle : Seen in D.C. area
Air brushed image from the above vehicle

CNBC: Chance of global recession 100% per Marc Faber
MW: Amount of public companies have declined 37% since 1997
Business Insider: Multiple financial indicators point to bear market
CNN Money: Gas prices probably near lowest cost for the summer
Daily Finance: NY Senator asks airlines to drop child seat fees
Reuters: Lawmakers working to stall end of year tax cut expirations
Project Syndicate: Public and governmental finance needs reinventing
AP: Austrian finance minister objects to Eurobonds
Zero Hedge: E.U. has abrogated rule of law for good of the state
NYT: Bank loans drying up in Spain, businesses struggling

Friday, May 25, 2012

Financial News 05/25/2012

CNBC: Independent tax tribunals considered by states for fairer appeals
Forbes: Higher taxes above $200K income if debt limit pushed to 2013
AKH: 1,204 Sq ft home @ $39.2k, lowers "exaggerated local labor costs"
AP: CEOs at "typical" public companies made $9.6 million in 2011
NYT: Buy vs rent calculator determines when which is better
Reuters: European economic turmoil costing U.S. GDP .1-.5%
BI: Informal poll reveals faith in the dollar & undervaluation of silver
CNN Money: Kit home could cost under $25k if production automated
BBC: Current British events reminiscent of the fall of Rome
Bloomberg: Chinese loan growth falls 1-1.5 trillion RMBs short

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Financial News 05/24/2012

CNN Money: Over 30% of mortgagees owe more than home is worth
MW: Company retirement plans have an early withdrawal exemption
Fox:  CFPB investigating prepaid debit disclosure of fees
CNBC: Effects of Euro-crisis influencing U.S. stock market
BLS: 370,000 jobless claims were filed the week ending 05/19/212
AP: Food stamp fraud practiced via replacement cards
Census: April durable manufactured goods orders up .2% or $.3 bln
BBC: European businesses approach lowest activity in 3 yrs
Reuters: Chinese May factory activity at a 3-month low
Bloomberg: Japanese firms buying gas fields after reactors go offline

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Financial News 05/23/2012

CBO: CBO forecasts policy linked economic contraction in 2013
BI: Tech IPO overpricing trend evident in LNKD, ZNGA, YELP & FB
CNN Money: Property values rising fastest in Madera, CA & Medford, OR
• Reuters: Federal judge dismisses SEC securities fraud accusations
Daily Finance: Former Olympic athlete turns to minimalism to pay off debt
MW: Dollar Index reaches 1 yr high, reaches 82
NAR: April existing home sales rose marginally, remains near historic lows
Bloomberg: UK April sales drop 2.3%; net inflation over wages 2.4%
World Bank: Developing Asian economies to grow 7.6%, slower than 2011
WP: Fitch rating agency downgrades Japan due to high national debt
AP: Stock markets around the world resume slide after brief rally on Monday

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Financial News 05/22/2012

• DHS: 850 nano Tesla geomagnetic storm would cost trillions of dollars
Daily Finance: Summer camp teaches finance to kids via simulations
Business Insider: FBI impersonation scams surpass identity theft
CNN Money: J P Morgan Chase loss now estimated to be $6-7 trillion
CNBC: Several large banks could be downgraded by Moody's shortly
• Zero Hedge: U.S. banks to refinance $60 billion at 3%+ as debt matures
• PWC: U.S. long-term interest rates to reach 5% by 2017
Reuters: Facebook shares shrank 11% on their second say of trading
Telegraph: Eurozone banks under-capitalized per BoE committee member
Bloomberg: Singapore investment bank forecasts 1-2 yrs of market stress

Monday, May 21, 2012

Financial News 05/21/2012

CNBC: Keynesian style spending ruled out at G-8 summit
AP: 22 states challenge Supreme Court ruling restricting campaign finance
Reuters: More stock market selling possible as Europe crisis worsens
Option Queen: Strength of DCB will indicate market sentiment up or down
LHL: 15:1 at Kentucky Derby, "I'll Have Another" aims for triple crown
BI: J P Morgan losses could reach $5 billion per Wall Street Journal
Bloomberg: New York State retiree health-care liabilities cost $240 billion
BI: Cramer predicts bank runs in Spain, says coordinated policy needed
Daily Paul: Major Spanish bank trading halt indicates possible bank run
BBC: European banks approaching shambles per ex-UK Chancellor

Friday, May 18, 2012

Guest Post: The biggest villains behind today's student loan crisis

Submitted by Elena Verley; syndicated courtesy of Online Colleges 


Image attribution: Online Colleges; ©Onlinecolleges.net

Student loan debt has now reached $1 trillion, and the situation has gotten so bad that there are Americans who are having their Social Security checks garnished to pay off outstanding loan debt. Meanwhile, recent graduates sit in a precarious position of underemployment, combined with doubling rates and rising monthly bills as their loans are sold from one lender to another. It’s clear that we’ve reached a crisis point. But what got us here?

There are several places where we can lay blame: colleges, for becoming so expensive and ignorant of student finance, the government, for restrictive policies and inflating prices with student aid, private lenders with predatory tactics, and even students for allowing themselves to get in too deep. The fault lies not with just one, but all of these student loan villains, who have all done their part to bring us to a very real point of trouble. Read on to learn in detail how each of these groups has played a role in the destruction of student loans.

Colleges

Although students, Congress, and banks are catching a lot of flack for the student loan debt crisis, many are pointing out that the high cost of college that creates the need for so many mind-blowing loan bills is the real problem. Cato Institute research shows it costs just $8,000 a year to educate an undergrad at the average residential college, while most students pay double that: $16,000 at public universities and $37,000 at private ones. What’s making up this major discrepancy? Multimillion dollar sports programs, glowing recreational facilities, excessive administration, and tenured faculty who may or may not actually be teaching are the most likely culprits. It seems that colleges can raise their prices because they know they’ll get paid one way or another, whether it’s through grants, scholarships, loans, government contributions, or endowments. Colleges raise tuition, get more aid, and raise tuition again in a vicious cycle that is not at all beneficial to students.

Financial aid offices

Whether the heart of the problem lies with price of education or not, it seems that colleges aren’t doing a whole lot to make student loans a responsible process. Financial aid offices aren’t known as places that will gently point out to students that perhaps they’ve gotten in over their heads, even though they often have a full picture of just how bad a student’s financial situation has become. Financial aid offices are in a great place to assess the financial situations of students and give them a reality check before they get in too deep. But it sure doesn’t seem like colleges want to do that. Some, like NYU’s VP of Enrollment Randall Deike, believe that it would be “completely inappropriate” for universities to take on such a role, as “some families will do whatever it takes for their son or daughter to be not just at N.Y.U., but any first-choice college.” Others may be hesitant to point out the problem, as it will likely send students to a different, cheaper college and push down enrollment numbers. U.S. Senators Dick Durbin and Tom Harkin are working on a solution to this problem, introducing a bill to require that colleges offer counseling to students who are seeking private student loans.

The federal government

Government intervention into student finance has been well-intentioned, but produced disastrous results. US News and World Report points out that the federal goals of making a college education within reach, while requiring that debts ultimately be repaid certainly seem reasonable and noble, but have not exactly worked out as planned. Where there was once a $2,500 annual limit on federal student loans, there’s now a $31,000 limit for four years. As the federal government pumps out more financial aid to help students afford college, colleges find that they can charge more for tuition, making education less affordable. And just about everyone can take out a student loan, giving colleges no incentive to keep costs down while students continue to rack up five-figure loan bills just to get a four-year degree. Even if students declare bankruptcy in the future their student loan debt lives on, as the government has deemed that student loans are not dischargeable. Beginning in 2014, student loan forgiveness laws will go into effect, capping federal loan payments at 10% of a student’s income, and forgiven after 15 years. This is excellent news for the future, but it doesn’t do a whole lot to help out those who are struggling today. Loans can be deferred, but ultimately, they must be paid.



Lenders

The government isn’t the only one handing out student loans like candy. Once students reach the limit on what they can borrow through federal student loans, they can turn to private lenders with much less favorable terms, but the same non-dischargeable debt. This fills the gap between what the government will provide, and what students need to actually pay for school, but it’s a dangerous situation to be in.nStudents with private loans are often subject to having their loans sold and terms changed, which can alter their loan payments by hundreds of dollars per month. These loans are convenient for students who need them to get through school, but their existence is highly problematic. Lenders like Sallie Mae and Wells Fargo have been accused of making subprime loans to student borrowers, not taking into consideration the risks behind these loans. They’ve given money to students attending schools with low graduation rates, students who may or may not actually finish school, get a job, and have the means to pay back their student loan. What happens then? They just sell off the debt, or, get a government bailout to cover the losses. The five biggest private student loan lenders have made profits reaching well into the billions, but at the same time, were able to get a $112 billion bailout from the government for loans that could no longer be sold.

Students and their families

We hate to blame the victims, but we have to ask: what exactly did students think they were getting into? Why didn’t parents save? Many programs exist. Obviously, many students feel that they don’t have a choice, and student loans, even subprime ones, often mean the difference between getting a college degree and not going to school at all (or worse, dropping out halfway). With big plans to get a great job after graduation, we’re sure that most students feel confident that they’ll be able to pay their student loan bills off without a whole lot of trouble. But why aren’t students more wary of taking on so much debt, especially with poor job prospects? We have to point out that there are often situations in which students could have acted more responsibly, and must bear some of the blame for our unfortunate student loan situation. It is possible to graduate college without debt, even if your parents haven’t saved one red cent. Enrolling at an in-state public college, starting out in community college, hunting down scholarships, picking up part-time work and paid internships, and even living at home are all major ways that students can make their school bills more manageable. Would we be in this situation if more students availed themselves of these options rather than taking a blind leap of faith right into crushing debt?

Ultimately, many parties are responsible for the student loan crisis. As we reach a point of decision, it will be interesting to see if and how colleges, Congress, lenders, and students themselves make a change for the better.

Financial News 05/18/2012

Bloomberg: FHFA considering limited mortgage write downs
CNBC: JP Morgan has $100 billion in risky assets, plans to sell some
CNN Money: Non-profit organization promotes subsidized jobs
BI: Facebook value priced in, premiums to be far higher than Google 
Zero Hedge: Interview with Geithner demonstrates revisionist agenda
AP: Greeks unsure about path forward, new election scheduled for June
Reuters: German finance minister predicts 1-2 yrs of market turmoil
Moody's: 16 Spanish banks' long-term debt & deposit ratings downgraded
UK Guardian: Berkshire Hathaway taps into local media with newspapers
MW: Fear of capital flight contributing to large decline in Asian stocks

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Financial News 05/17/2012

BLS: 370,000 jobless claims were filed the week ending 05/12/2012
MW: Fitch estimates banks need $566 billion for regulatory compliance
AP: Home repossession rate increase in April indicated by state data
CNN Money: House Republicans pledge new national debt standoff
NYT: J P Morgan Chase losses now $3 billion and is at mercy of market
ETF Daily: Soros doubts long-term gold bear market and high dollar
BI: Facebook's co-founder renounces U.S. citizenship, saves $67 million
Reuters: U.S. bond yields showing signs of bottoming with less bulls
Bloomberg: Euro near 4 month low, Spain's 2015 bond yields up 1.49% 
CNBC: Greek exit from Eurozone could cost near $254 billion
Telegraph: Bank of England raises 2012 inflation forecast to above 2.5%

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Why Sociopaths Make More Money

Image attribution: Freeditigalphotos.net; standard royalty free license

A distinct parallel exists between psychopathy and the actions of many corporations, which under the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, have the same legal rights as individuals. In fact, corporate personhood grants corporations equal treatment to natural persons under the law per a National Public Radio interview with Yale Law Professor, John Witt. 

When corporate personhood is utilized as a tool to achieve better legal protection for the objective of making profit the potential for corporate psychopathy exists. This is because without regard to less convenient aspects of natural personhood, "corporate persons", which are comprised of persons who aren't necessarily psychopathic, risk sidestepping human and systemic functionality in the name of profitable psychopathy.  The movie "The Corporation" explains this in detail, and illustrates how each symptom of psychopathic behavior is demonstrated by corporations; an excerpt of this film is below.

 

But what does corporate psychopathy have to do with making money? The answer to that is embedded in what corporations make possible, namely unbridled sociopathy, which in many ways, is essential to psychopathy. Since corportions are essentially money making entities, it also follows that the method of business, which is oftentimes sociapathic, is also good for making money. Individuals that emulate businesses, are therefore at risk of also emulating sociopathic behavior. 

This pattern of behavior is also noted by Psychiatrist Montague Ullman. Ullman clearly draws the conclusion that corporations, who as persons are psychopathic, contribute to systemic dysfunction. Furthermore, the problem associated with this according to Ullman, is "contamination of whatever circles the psychopath moves in", including government. However, Ullman states, "free reign on profit making" is a contributing factor to this, which also implies sociopaths make more money.

To illustrate further, feelings, empathy, relationships, and honesty get in the way of profitability because they require the corporation to recognize more expensive aspects of personhood. For example, vacation and sick leave benefits cost productivity hours,  and employment law means costly benefits and minimum wage, so corporations evade employment law by contracting instead. That, according to Ullman's 7th criteria of psychopathy, is related to, if not indistinguishable from, "lack of remorse as indicated by being indifferent to or rationalizing having hurt, mistreated or stolen from another".

The bottom line for many businesses is, people are customers, employees are human resources, and the goal of business is to generate profit. In many cases this is done regardless of harm to human relationships, disregard for the safety of others, poor strategic planning and deceitfulness under the veil of a logos, trademarks and corporate labels. Sociopaths, and even persons able to implement sociopathic agendas, make more money because the best exploitation requires heartless, and possibly even soulless decision making. Thing is, when we are taught money makes the world go around, we are also learning that sociopathy might be ok too.

Financial News 05/16/2012

Bloomberg: Wealthy use confusion and corporations to protect information
Reuters: FHA loans facilitate new property purchases despite foreclosures
CNN Money: Former President says national debt is a key election year issue
AP: Berkshire Hathaway long on GM, purchases 10 million shares
Fox Business: Property leasing ripe, but renter caution on contracts warranted
Census: Construction began on 717,000 privately owned homes in April
BI: Technical analysis by BoFa warns of increased stock market volatility
BBC: Royal diamond worn by former French Queen sells for $9.7 million
CNBC: U.S. markets influenced by European events per PIMCO CEO
WSJ: Greek bank run in progress, $898 million withdrawn in one day
IBT: IMF warns of possible Greek exit from Euro
Telegraph: Italian and Spanish 10-yr bond yields up on contagion fears

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Financial News 05/15/2012

Bloomberg: Mitt Romney wants to repeal the Dodd-Frank financial reforms
AP: West coast gas between $4.17-$4.35/gallon due to refinery issues
BLS: Consumer Price Index was unchanged in April, 12 month inflation 2.3%
Forbes: Exercising incentive stock options can trigger Alternate Minimum Tax
Census: Retail sales increased .1% or $408 billion in April
MW: Dollar Index around 80.58, near 3-month high, Oil near $95/brl
CNBC: U.S. corporate executives misled by post-financial crisis ovesight
Telegraph: Germany's GDP grew by .5% in Q1, 2012 & buttresses Eurozone
Moody's: Long-term debt & deposit ratings of 26 Italian banks downgraded
BI: 74.6% of banking clients polled think Greece will leave Eurozone
Reuters: Finance ministers deny a Greek exit from Eurozone will occur

Monday, May 14, 2012

Financial News 05/14/2012

Reuters: Stock market investors face uncertainty amid economic concerns
NYT: California's budget deficit reaches $16 billion
MF: Commission, asset-based-fees & hourly fees bleed the financially advised
Option Queen: Bush tax cuts expiration to push stock market into toilet
CNN Money: JP Morgan's $2 billion loss demonstrates banking risk appetite
AP: Ireland to put Euro-austerity to test in national vote
CNBC: Euro parity with dollar more likely with anti-austerity & debt crisis
Bloomberg: Greek re-election likely as "anti-bailout government" rejects unity
MarketWatch: Chinese central bank lowers banking reserve ratio by .5%
BBC: Free trade between Japan, China and S. Korea in negotiation

Friday, May 11, 2012

How behavioral finance influences stock market investing

 Transition from normal to abnormal market behavior 
Image attribution: Sharronzabary; CC BY-SA 3.0

Stock market investing and financial decision making is linked to behavioral science. Human behavior underlies quantitative models, algorithm based trading, fundamental analysis, and valuation equations in finance. In other words, it is another important sphere of finance that is relevant to stock market events. Since human behavior cannot currently be scientifically predicted on a continual basis as evident in the inability of game theory and political analysis to do so, the 'next best thing' may be behavioral finance in the sense it can supplement scientific evaluation. 

Behavioral finance

The field of behavioral finance postulates and theorizes psychological motivations form a basis for individual financial decisions. A number of different concepts relate to this, of which optimism bias is a well known one. Broadly speaking optimism bias is a human trait that looks at life and aspects of  it such as the stock market with a less than realistic assessment. Whether or not attributes of behavioral finance studied are human adaptations or instinct is perhaps given less weight than their relevance to finance. For example, how 'compartmentalization', a theory of identity discussed by Psychlopedia and others, can influence investing behavior in the stock market.

Market psychology

Market psychology is an aspect of behavioral finance. Market psychology refers to specific behavioral decisions that are reflected by stock markets in a way that defies purely numerical financial logic. Market psychology is generally associated with aggregated emotions such as fear, happiness, frustration and so on. Since humans are inevitably both logical, and emotional beings among other things, it is for the most part impossible to be quantitatively logical 100 percent of the time, which is when emotions and other psychological decision making processes can take hold of the stock market.

Individual psychology

Individual psychology is the component element of market psychology. A number of non-mathematical decision making techniques that 'behavioral finance' calls heuristics can affect investors' financial decisions. An example of a heuristic decision is one based on pattern recognition. Heuristics are an attribute of Prospect theory which according to Thayer Watkins of Saint Joss State University, states people are more likely to choose less money if the probability of acquiring it is 100 percent, but will take a greater risk for more money if the higher probability is lower than 100 percent in some cases.

Consumer behavior

On the buying side of the equation is consumer behavior. This relates to the psychology of consumerism which itself indirectly impacts the stock market through consumer expenditures, an economic statistic often consulted prior to stock trading. According to the University of Southern California at Marshall, consumer behavior deals with matters such as what social influences, thought processes  and perceptions affect buyer behavior. Moreover consumer behavior studies how these influences can themselves be affected by advertising and market research.

Finanial News 05/11/2012

BI: Effect of current healthcare costs have same as an 8% value added tax
CNN Money: 200,000 Americans to lose unemployment benefits this week
BW: JP Morgan Chase loses $2 billion on "synthetic credit investments"
Bloomberg: Volcker rule reinforced by JP Morgan Chase investment risks
BLS: Core producer prices up .2% in March, PPI down .2% 
CNBC: Corporations have lost $13 billion in intellectual property per FBI
NYT: U.S. adoption of IFRS controversial among accountants and in SEC
AP: European Union forecasts economic contraction for Eurozone in 2012
Huff Post: Indian industry & manufacturing down 3.5% &  4.4% in March
BBC: China's economic growth slowing on lower retail sales & factory output

Thursday, May 10, 2012

How the U.S. national debt is different from federal deficit spending

 Image attribution: Unforgettable fan; CC BY-SA 3.0

The difference between government deficit and national debt is the deficit is thought of on an annual basis whereas national debt is long-term. Moreover, the deficit is the total expenditures and costs incurred by the federal government that exceed revenue from sources such as taxes in a given fiscal year, and according to the U.S. Bureau of Public Debt, national debt is the total debt which includes deficits and debt owed on financial instruments that has been accumulated by government over time.

To illustrate further, the annual federal budget deficit does not add the deficit or unpaid balances from previous years of deficit spending. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) states the deficit is the net amount by which government 'outlays' exceed revenue for a given period. The forecasted budget deficit for 2011 is $1.645 trillion or 10.9 percent of GDP according to the 2012 U.S. Budget released by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget.

The national debt is the total amount owed on financial instruments such as Treasury bonds and deficit spending that has contributed to national debt. The CBO describes national debt as the total value of debt instruments issued by multiple federal agencies. Since the budget deficit is not financed by debt instruments, it is incorrect to conclude the national debt is the cumulative total of all unpaid deficits based on the CBOs definition of each.

Image attribution: Gene Simmons NDAC, CBO; US-PDGov, CC BY-SA 3.0

The U.S. Bureau of Public Debt keeps an ongoing tally of total national debt which was  $14.287 trillion on April 29, 2011. This amount includes public debt and 'intragovernmental' debt which is debt held by government rather than the public. The national public debt was predicted to reach its legal limit on May 16, 2011 according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Timory Geithner and as reported by MarketWatch.

The national debt became a money management controversy when it reached a percentage of Gross Domestic near 100 percent. President Obama addressed this issue by putting forward a proposal to cut this debt by $4 trillion within 12 years according to Bloomberg. However, opposition to this plan did not agree with the amount of tax increases that would be necessary to make the debt decline under Obama's plan.


In summary, government financing comes in the form of debt instruments such as bonds in addition to revenue from taxes where budgets are thought of in terms of government revenue and expenses where debt is a function of money owed on debt obligations. In light of this, three key variables including the type of financing, the time period for which fiscal policy takes place, and whether or not the negative balances are cumulative defines whether money owed is from an annual deficit or national debt.

Financial News 05/10/2012

BLS: 367,000 jobless claims were filed the week ending 05/05/2012
CNN Money: CEOs push for extension of Bush tax law, Obama objects
Tax Foundation: Married couples taxed higher under Bush tax cut expiration
Census: March national trade deficit increased to $51.8 billion
CBS: California budget deficit grows as tax revenue falls short by $2.5 billion
BI: California pensions in excess of $100k/yr grow by 25% for indebted state
CNBC: Citigroup economists say economies need more stimulus
UK Guardian: UK central bank decides against stimulus, rates unchanged
AP: Spain capitalizes $5.9 billion of debt for 4th largest bank in restructuring
Reuters: Germany sees economic growth via structural reform not spending
BBC: Chinese exports slowed to 4.9% growth from 8.9% yr over yr

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

How Emerging Markets Differ Economically From Developed Economies

 Developed vs Emerging Market Economies

Image attribution: AlexCovarrubias; public domain

Emerging markets characterize nation-states that are rising out of economic underdevelopment into a market based economy. These markets are still in the earlier phases of the industrial growth cycle in the sense they have large potential for systemic growth as measured by economic statistics. In other words, nation-states are developed to the point of self-sustainable growth but have not reached their full, or near full economic capacity. Economic capacity is the potential of an economy to produce, productively engage a work force, and make efficient use of economic resources in a profitable way. 

Market economy

Emergence from a developing nation to a growing market economy is a key attribute of an emerging market. This distinction between developing nation and emerging market is made by Vladimir Kvint in a Forbes report discussing emerging markets. Specifically, Kvint says a developing country is characterized by a strong need for economic assistance in the form of basic commodities needed to sustain a population whereas emerging markets have developed resources beyond this point. This is echoed in a report from the World Bank and cited by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Population demographics

According to Ashoka Mody of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), an emerging market is also characterized by changes in its demographic statistics. For example, Mody suggests an emerging market economy will have telling increases in fertility rates, education and life expectancy. These demographic categories represent advancements in wealth and health care. Additional demographics that may align themselves with emerging markets are higher employment and per capital income.

Economic policy

Since emerging markets are 'emerging' out of either undeveloped statehood or non-market economies, changes to government policy are also likely to be simultaneously indicative of changes to a state's economic status. This characteristic of emerging markets is highlighted by Ashoka Mody  and also  Chuan Li of the University of Iowa Center for International Finance  and Development. According to Li, changes in governance within emerging markets are aimed at transitioning away from overly interventionist policies, and avoiding corruption that can inhibit development of a free market.

Statistical metrics

There are a number of economic statistics that if measured correctly, are characteristic of an emerging market. Some of these statistical metrics include Gross Domestic Product (GDP), trade balance, government spending, tax receipts, and manufacturing activity among several others. These types of statistics are different from demographic statistics because they are representative of an economy and more derivative of demographics which directly measure changes to the population in an emerging market.

So having defined some of the characteristics of emerging markets what are some examples that meet all the above criteria? One place to look is an emerging market index that measures growth across a variety of economic sectors in multiple emerging markets. Moreover, this type of index is designed to measure business growth, a key characteristic of emerging markets.

Emerging and Growth Leading Economies (EAGLES)
 Image attribution: Pawel; CC BY-SA 3.0

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index includes Brazil, Chile, China, Columbia, Egypt, Hungary, Morocco and India among its emerging markets. Some of these economies such as China and Brazil are already quite large and may seem beyond the status of emerging. Yet what distinguishes these large growing economies from fully matured developed economies are the pace of growth, the speed at which structural change takes place and the potential to significantly increase economic capacity.