According to the Graziado Business Review, since 1942 the stock market has bottomed an average of 1.87 years into a Presidential cycle. Moreover, the average bull market is 3.8 years per InvesTech Research via the Big Picture. Since the bull market started in 2009, 3.8 years would put the market bottom at the first year of the next Presidential cycle sometime in 2013.
Economically, the U.S. has stabilized, but faces many challenges. The auto industry continues to improve if sales are any indicator. The value of the dollar has increased recently per the Dollar Index, possibly contributing to the decline in the price of gold below $1,600 per Troy ounce and a stabilizing of sweet crude oil prices. Even though unemployment has declined, the workforce has shrunk. Yet small businesses borrowing is up despite higher consumer revolving credit.
Conditions around the World seem volatile. With the Eurozone heading into a likely contraction with the exception of Germany per Bloomberg, the Euro currency may lower further. However, the effectiveness of international banking via Special Drawing Rights may avert this. In effect, by developing debt this way, it spreads responsibility for it across a larger range of financial institutions and entities, but doesn't lower it. The Market Oracle considers SDRs to be a possible replacement for the Dollar in International Trade settlements.
• NYT: 2012 consumer spending to be tepid per ITG Investment Research
• Newsday: Small-business borrowing has reached February 2008 levels
• AP via Yahoo Finance: Auto industry reaching healthy sales levels
• RT: CIA uses drug money to fund operations per Ron Paul
• Economic Times: Eurozone manufacturing declines for 5th month in a row
• UK Telegraph: HSBC Chinese December PMI shows contraction at 48.7
• EITB: Spain's finance minister states 2011 deficit spending may top 8%
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