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Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Are Greek Bondholders Protected from 'Credit Events'?

Greek bondholders such as hedge funds are faced with possible restructuring by the Greek Government. If those bonds are insured not by the Greek Government, but rather with separate credit default swaps, a credit event must occur in order for that insurance to be claimed. Determining whether or not insurers will pay out in such scenarios depends on what is considered a credit event if the bonds are even insured.

According to Allen & Overy, Global Intelligence Unit most of Greek Sovereign Bonds are governed by Greek law allowing the bonds to be restructured via a Governmental resolution of bondholder options via collective action clause within the bond terms. How those collective action clauses are worded can mean the difference between a credit event and voluntary rescheduling of bond payments. In the event of involuntary restructuring, that debt is considered in default and would allow buyer protection to be issued per Allen & Overy.

Thing is, if the bond restructuring is legally administered by the Greek government to be 'voluntary' as defined by collective action clauses, then it is not considered a credit event per Forbes. Moreover, why didn't Greek bondholders collect on credit default swaps in the last Greek bond 'haircut'? or did they? It does not set much of a precedent for a credit event now if CDS sellers did not pay out the last time. This is because the same reasoning that was used to not pay bondholders the last time could be used again to protect their financial interests. Why wouldn't they?

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